Coffee prices face potential 300 percent surge amid supply concerns

Global coffee prices are facing significant upward pressure, with high-quality varieties already exceeding 100 PLN per kilogram. Market analysts warn that prices could potentially rise by more than 300 percent due to several converging factors.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that the global coffee indicator price rose by 15.4 percent month-on-month in July 2026. This volatility is driven by harvest delays in Brazil caused by excessive rainfall, a decline in certified Arabica stocks in the United States, and the anticipated impact of a strong El Nino phenomenon expected in late 2026.

While global coffee trade remains stable—with exports increasing slightly in June 2026—production challenges persist. In Brazil, coffee harvesting progress was reported at 64 percent in mid-July, compared to 77 percent during the same period the previous year, raising concerns regarding crop quality and future supply.