Colombia's Petro government overestimated tax revenue by 33 trillion pesos

The independent fiscal watchdog Carf reported that President Gustavo Petro's administration overstated tax collections by 33 trillion pesos and underestimated spending by 60 trillion pesos, contradicting the Medium‑Term Fiscal Framework. The miscalculation leaves the incoming government of Abelardo de la Espriella with a narrow fiscal margin, pending financing for 303 trillion pesos of the 2026 budget, and debt that will soon mature. Finance Minister‑designate Miguel Gómez has announced spending freezes and debt restructuring as remedial measures.

The transition process has been contentious. Vice‑president‑elect José Manuel Restrepo raised seven concerns covering land management, negotiations with armed groups, fiscal crisis, and energy, prompting a sharp exchange with Minister Germán Ávila, who labeled Restrepo’s briefing “deficient.” Meanwhile, the prosecutor's office opened investigations into former officials Danilo Rueda, Iván Velásquez, and Jorge Lemus over alleged concessions to the Clan del Golfo, and the Supreme Court sentenced former congresswoman Tatiana Cabello to 12 years for extortion.

These developments underscore a deepening fiscal and political challenge as Colombia prepares for a governmental handover amid investigations and a looming budget shortfall.