CPB forecasts Dutch purchasing power decline in 2027

The CPB Centraal Planbureau forecasts that Dutch household purchasing power will decline by 0.3 percent in 2027. While purchasing power is expected to rise by 0.6 percent in 2026, the 2027 downturn is attributed to factors such as higher income taxes and rising energy and fuel prices.

Inflation is projected to remain persistent, estimated at 3.3 percent this year and 2.8 percent next year. Although poverty is expected to decrease from 3.0 percent to 2.6 percent this year, it is forecasted to rise slightly to 2.7 percent in 2027.

CPB Director Pieter Hasekamp noted that while geopolitical developments are a cause for concern, the Dutch economy remains resilient. He advised against generic purchasing power support, suggesting instead that investing in sustainability with a focus on vulnerable households is a more effective long-term strategy.

Regarding the broader economy, the CPB expects growth of 1.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2027. Unemployment is projected to remain low, moving from 3.9 to 4.0 percent. Meanwhile, the government budget deficit is expected to increase from 1.6 percent of GDP in 2025 to nearly 3 percent this year, partly due to one-time defense pension expenditures.