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Super El Niño reaches record strength, impacting global winter forecasts
The current El Niño phenomenon has reached record-breaking strength, according to the UK Met Office and NOAA. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific have surpassed previous records, with some regions exceeding 3°C. Forecasters warn that this Super El Niño is expected to persist through February 2027, potentially causing extreme heat, drought, and flooding globally.
In Europe, the impact on winter weather is complex. While models from Severe Weather Europe suggest that northern, northwestern, and southwestern Europe may experience below-average snowfall, central Europe shows potential for above-average precipitation, particularly in February. Additionally, meteorologists warn that a weakening polar vortex in the second half of winter could trigger sudden, severe cold snaps across the continent.
Regional forecasts for the Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina currently indicate below-average seasonal snowfall, though local topography may cause significant variations. In North America, the phenomenon is expected to bring higher-than-average precipitation to the southern United States and Canada, while parts of Wyoming may see less than average snowfall.
Entities
BHmeteo · DHMZ · ECMWF · El Niño · Met Office · NOAA · Severe Weather Europe · World Meteorological Organization
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have exceeded 3°C. brusselsmorning.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27. brusselsmorning.com
- [DISPUTED] Current models predict below-average snowfall for Bosnia and Herzegovina. hms.ba · novi.ba · tuzlanski.ba
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The current El Niño is the strongest event in the observational record. brusselsmorning.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Below-average snowfall is expected in northern, northwestern, and southwestern Europe. koktejl.azet.sk · www.telegram.hr
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A weakening polar vortex during the second half of winter could lead to sudden cold snaps in Europe. tn.nova.cz
- [DISPUTED] Central Europe may experience above-average snowfall during the winter season. koktejl.azet.sk · www.telegram.hr
- [○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño is nearly 100% likely to persist through February 2027. brusselsmorning.com