Democrats Lead Texas Senate Race as Polls Show Talarico Ahead of Paxton

CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten told anchor John Berman that recent polls indicate Democratic nominee James Talarico is ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by about four points in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race. Enten highlighted that Talarico’s lead is the strongest for a Democrat in a Texas Senate contest since 2002, contrasting it with the 2018 race where Beto O'Rourke trailed incumbent Ted Cruz.

Enten noted that Paxton is significantly less popular than Cruz, with a net favorability seven points below zero, while Trump’s popularity in Texas has also slipped, further tightening the race. While he stopped short of predicting a win, Enten said a Democratic victory is “absolutely” possible, potentially ending a run of Republican Senate seats dating back to 1988.