Denmark Ministry of Finance: Demographic scenario shows shift in population composition

A scenario calculation by the Danish Ministry of Finance indicates that if current net immigration levels remain unchanged, the proportion of the population of Danish origin could fall to 68.9 percent by the year 2100. This represents a decrease from the 82.3 percent projected for 2030.

The calculation, requested by Mikkel Bjørn of the Danish People’s Party, shows an increase in various immigrant and descendant groups. Western immigrants are projected to rise from 5.7 percent in 2030 to 9.0 percent in 2100, while non-Western immigrants are expected to increase from 7.7 percent to 10.9 percent over the same period.

The Ministry of Finance emphasized that this is a ‘mechanical scenario calculation’ rather than a formal population forecast, meaning it does not account for potential future changes in immigration or emigration policies. Peter Fallesen, a research professor at the Rockwool Foundation, noted that such projections cannot account for unpredictable global events or shifts in migration patterns.