Diesel shortage drives fuel price divergence in Hungary

Fuel prices in Hungary are experiencing a significant divergence, with diesel currently costing more than 60 to 80 forints per liter than 95-octane gasoline. While wholesale prices are expected to remain stable in the immediate term, experts warn that Europe has entered a period of structural diesel shortages.

Several geopolitical and logistical factors are driving this imbalance. The loss of Russian imports due to Ukrainian attacks on refining infrastructure, combined with supply disruptions in the Middle East, has tightened the market. Specifically, tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments—create ongoing uncertainty. While Iran and Oman are discussing new shipping routes, negotiations remain stalled by demands regarding sanctions and frozen assets.

Additionally, high crack spreads, where the price difference between crude oil and refined products reaches approximately $85 per barrel, indicate that diesel is being valued significantly higher than its base oil. While seasonal demand shifts used to dictate price cycles, current market volatility is being driven primarily by these supply-side constraints and global geopolitical tensions.