Diesel supply risks rise due to Saudi Arabian oil disruptions

Economist A. Bartkus has warned that the primary concern regarding diesel is not its price, but rather its physical availability. This potential shortage is driven by disrupted oil supplies from Saudi Arabia.

Several factors are complicating the situation: the closure of the Hormuz Strait, Houthi control over the southern exit to the Red Sea, and the inability to transport oil through the Suez Canal. Additionally, damage to Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and pumping stations may require repairs lasting between four and eight weeks. If these facilities are attacked again after repairs, finding alternatives for Saudi oil will be extremely difficult.

Refineries are often calibrated for specific chemical compositions, making it hard to swap oil types easily. If Saudi Arabia cannot resume supply, major clients including Japan, South Korea, China, the United States, and Poland’s Orlen will compete for alternative suppliers. The situation could worsen if U.S. President Donald Trump decides to halt diesel exports to Europe, which could force physical rationing of the fuel.