DNV report: Energy security drives divergent global energy transitions

DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2026 indicates that energy security is driving divergent transition strategies between energy importers and exporters. The report notes that importers, such as China, India, and those in Europe, have a stronger incentive to expand domestic renewable generation and improve efficiency to reduce exposure to international fuel markets. Over the last five years, the non-fossil share of primary energy in these importing regions increased by 2.2 percentage points, compared to a 0.7 percentage point increase in exporting regions like the Middle East, North America, and Russia.

While global expenditure on renewables is projected to reach USD 1.77 trillion in 2026, the report highlights that the world is currently on a trajectory toward 2.3 degrees Celsius of global warming by 2100. DNV forecasts that fossil and non-fossil sources will likely account for roughly equal shares of primary energy by 2050. Additionally, the report suggests that geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, may cause permanent demand destruction for oil, further weakening its position as a global export commodity.