Global energy transition challenges and trends

Recent reports highlight significant complexities and divergent strategies in the global energy transition. An S&P Global study, ‘Multidimensional Global Energy Pathways’, argues that the transition is not a simple shift toward renewables, noting that fossil fuels are projected to supply over half of the world’s energy through 2060. The study suggests that current technology and investment levels make the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C ‘currently unattainable’ and urges policymakers toward pragmatic solutions.

Following this, DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2026 indicates that energy security is causing different approaches between energy importers and exporters. Importers like China, India, and Europe are increasing domestic renewable generation to reduce market exposure, whereas exporting regions like the Middle East, North America, and Russia show slower increases in non-fossil energy shares. DNV forecasts that fossil and non-fossil sources will likely hold roughly equal shares of primary energy by 2050, while the world remains on a trajectory toward 2.3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.