Dutch employers drive electric car surge as EVs set to dominate new sales by 2027
ING projects that fully electric vehicles will account for about half of all new cars registered in the Netherlands by 2027, raising the EV market share from roughly 40 % in 2024 to 55 % in 2027. The forecast is driven by a new fiscal measure that, from 2027, imposes a pseudo‑end tax of 12 % of the catalogue value on any new business car without a plug, making non‑electric lease cars financially unattractive.
Leasing firms are already seeing the shift. Athlon reports that 70 % of its lease orders in the first half of 2026 were electric, with corporate customers ordering electric cars for 87 % of their fleets, smaller businesses at 62 % and freelancers at 49 %. The company also notes the rapid rollout of zero‑emission zones – 20 Dutch cities have such zones, a 21st will be added this summer and eight more are under consideration. Private lease demand for electric cars rose 40 % in the same period, helped by lower lease‑tax rates (18 % on the first €30 k in 2026, rising to 20 % in 2027) and incentives such as earnings from home‑charger certificates.
Entities: Athlon · Dutch government · ING Group · Netherlands · Niels van den Hoogen
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] From 2027 a pseudo‑end tax of 12 % of the catalogue value will be applied to new business cars without a plug, making non‑electric lease cars less attractive. (Dutch fiscal policy change)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Among Athlon’s corporate customers, 87 % of orders are electric; among smaller businesses 62 % and among freelancers 49 %. (Athlon market breakdown)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] ING expects fully electric vehicles to represent about half of all new cars registered in the Netherlands by 2027, with market share rising from roughly 40 % in 2024 to 55 % in 2027. (ING forecast)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Twenty Dutch cities have zero‑emission zones, a 21st will be added in summer 2026, and eight more municipalities are considering implementation. (Athlon report on zero‑emission zones)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Athlon reports that 70 % of its lease orders in the first half of 2026 were electric vehicles. (Athlon leasing data)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Private lease orders for electric vehicles increased 40 % in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. (Athlon leasing data)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Since 2026 home electric vehicle chargers in the Netherlands can earn revenue through ERE certificates. (Athlon observation)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] For fully electric lease cars, the 2026 tax rate is 18 % on the first €30 000 of catalogue value and 22 % above; in 2027 the rate rises to 20 % on the first €30 000 with 22 % above. (2026–2027 lease‑car tax rules)