Ebola poses 70% risk of spreading to South Sudan within 12 weeks, WHO study warns

A World Health Organization modelling study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases indicates a 70% probability that the rare Bundibugyo strain of Ebola will reach South Sudan within the next twelve weeks. The virus, which emerged in early April 2026, spread unnoticed for six weeks in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo before WHO declared a public‑health emergency, and cases have already been recorded in Uganda.

South Sudan’s health system is among the weakest in the region, with limited capacity for case management and contact tracing. Researchers advise neighbouring countries to introduce immediate public‑health measures such as border surveillance, contact tracing, and safe burial practices, as no vaccine is yet available. The study notes that Rwanda and Burundi face lower risks of 8.6% and 2% respectively. An intensified response in the DRC is showing early signs of slowing transmission, but the risk assessment is intended as an early warning tool rather than a precise forecast.