Ecuador faces power shortage risks due to El Niño

Ecuador faces a significant risk of electricity supply shortages and service interruptions throughout 2026. This vulnerability is driven by an asymmetric El Niño pattern that is causing severe meteorological droughts in the eastern watershed and the Austro region.

The current weather pattern threatens 33 hydroelectric plants, which account for 83% of the nation's total hydraulic capacity. Unlike the 1997–1998 El Niño event, which brought heavy rainfall to both coastal and eastern basins, the current phenomenon is expected to produce abundant rainfall only along the coast while leaving the Amazon and eastern regions dry.

Official data indicates declining water supplies in critical basins. For instance, the Paute River recorded an average flow of 114.13 m³/s in 2026, a decrease from the 119.45 m³/s recorded during the 1997 crisis. By late June 2026, water levels in the Mazar, Paute, Agoyán, and Minas San Francisco basins had approached critical thresholds.