El Niño phenomenon development in Ecuador

Ocean temperatures off the coast of Ecuador have remained significantly higher than seasonal norms, with specialists from the Instituto Oceanográfico y Antártico de la Armada (Inocar) reporting that expected cooling has not occurred. Research from CENAIM near Santa Elena identified a surface temperature anomaly of approximately 0.8°C, while subsurface anomalies reached nearly 4°C due to a Kelvin wave transporting heat across the Pacific.

In response to these signals, the Ecuadorian government launched ‘Alístate Ecuador’, a digital visualizer hosted on the ‘Alertas Ecuador’ portal. Presented by National Secretary for Risk Management Carolina Lozano, the tool is intended to strengthen national preparedness by providing information on shelters, volunteers, and humanitarian kits. The platform also allows users to review historical data from 2010 to 2026 and identify high-exposure sectors to help reduce the impacts of potential emergencies.

As the phenomenon continues, Ecuador faces significant risks of electricity supply shortages and service interruptions throughout 2026. An asymmetric El Niño pattern is causing severe meteorological droughts in the eastern watershed and the Austro region, threatening 33 hydroelectric plants that account for 83% of the nation's total hydraulic capacity. Unlike the 1997–1998 event, current patterns are expected to produce abundant rainfall only along the coast, leaving the Amazon and eastern regions dry. By late June 2026, water levels in the Mazar, Paute, Agoyán, and Minas San Francisco basins had approached critical thresholds, with the Paute River recording an average flow of 114.13 m³/s, lower than the 119.45 m³/s recorded during the 1997 crisis.