Ecuador ocean temperatures signal potential El Niño development

Ocean temperatures off the coast of Ecuador are remaining significantly higher than seasonal norms, signaling potential development of the El Niño phenomenon for the 2026-2027 period. Specialists from the Instituto Oceanográfico y Antártico de la Armada (Inocar) report that the expected cooling process for these months has not materialized, maintaining a persistent thermal anomaly.

Research conducted by Espol’s National Center for Aquaculture and Fisheries Research (CENAIM) near Santa Elena has detected a surface temperature anomaly of approximately 0.8°C, but more significant warming has been found beneath the surface. Subsurface anomalies have reached nearly 4°C, accompanied by a deepening of the thermocline. Experts attribute these conditions to a Kelvin wave transporting heat across the Pacific.

Projections suggest a potential second peak in temperature anomalies during October and November, which could exceed 3°C. Scientists are closely monitoring the ocean-atmosphere response throughout September and October to determine the full extent of the phenomenon.