Ecuador President Daniel Noboa’s crackdown fuels political repression and criminal fragmentation

Under President Daniel Noboa, Ecuador has seen a sharp increase in state‑led repression. Authorities have frozen bank accounts of critical social organizations such as UNE and UNORCAC and have manipulated the National Electoral Council to remove opposition parties – RC5, Unidad Popular and Construye – from the ballot ahead of upcoming elections. The government’s narrative of an “internal armed conflict” has been used to justify these measures, while public approval of Noboa has fallen to around 30 %.

At the same time, the country’s criminal landscape is fracturing. More than 48 armed groups are now active, up from half that number a year earlier, with dozens operating in Guayas province alone. The fragmentation follows the killing or capture of cartel leaders and has sparked a surge in violence, despite a 14 % drop in homicides earlier in the year. Fifteen states of emergency have been declared across nine provinces, and Colombian guerrilla factions are also active in border regions. U.S. designations of Ecuadorian gangs as Foreign Terrorist Organizations have further complicated security efforts.

The combined political crackdown and rise of fragmented criminal groups are deepening instability across Ecuador.