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Vietnam faces water security risks from strong El Nino
Vietnam is facing significant water security risks due to a very strong El Nino phenomenon projected to persist through early summer 2027. Experts forecast a 98% probability that El Nino will reach very strong intensity between October and December 2026.
This climatic shift is expected to cause water shortages affecting approximately 29 million people in downstream areas and 800,000 hectares of agricultural land in Northern and North-Central Vietnam. Key risks include reduced river runoff, increased saltwater intrusion, and potential shortages in drinking water, agriculture, and hydroelectric power production. In Gia Lai province, authorities are developing four response scenarios to manage high water demand and significant deficits in western regions.
Meteorological forecasts also indicate that while the frequency of tropical depressions and storms in the East Sea may be lower than average, there is a heightened risk of unusual intensity and unpredictable trajectories. Additionally, Northern Vietnam may experience weaker cold air activity, leading to a delayed onset of severe cold and fewer days of light rain during the winter months.
Entities
East Sea · El Niño · Gia Lai · Mekong Delta · Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development · National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting · Nguyen Duc Hoa · Vietnam
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Cold air activity in Northern Vietnam is forecast to be weaker than the multi-year average from October to December 2026. giadinh.suckhoedoisong.vn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Experts warn of potential unusual intensity and trajectories for tropical depressions and storms despite lower frequency. vtv.vn
- [● 3 SOURCES] El Nino is projected to reach very strong intensity with a 98% probability from October to December 2026. giadinh.suckhoedoisong.vn · vtv.vn · thanhnien.vn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Nearly 60% of Vietnam's average annual river runoff originates from outside its national borders. nnmt.net.vn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The number of tropical depressions and storms in the East Sea affecting Vietnam is expected to be lower than the multi-year average. vtv.vn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Severe cold and harmful cold in Northern Vietnam are likely to occur later than usual due to El Nino. giadinh.suckhoedoisong.vn
- [● 2 SOURCES] The El Nino phenomenon is expected to maintain very strong intensity through the early summer months of 2027. giadinh.suckhoedoisong.vn · vtv.vn
- [● 2 SOURCES] There is a high risk of drought and saltwater intrusion in the South Central, Central Highlands, and Mekong Delta regions during the 2026-2027 dry season. nnmt.net.vn · thanhnien.vn