El Niño expected to become one of strongest since 1950, NOAA says

U.S. climate forecasters say the El Niño that developed this summer is on track to become one of the strongest on record, with an 81 % chance of reaching the "very strong" category and a 97 % chance of persisting into early 2027. Sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are already 1‑2.7 °C above normal, a level not seen since the mid‑1950s. The Climate Prediction Center notes the event could rank among the largest since 1950.

The strengthening El Niño is expected to reshape weather worldwide. In the Atlantic, increased wind shear should suppress tropical storm formation, lowering the projected number of named storms to 8‑14, below the 30‑year average of 14. In the southern United States, winter may be cooler and wetter, while Australia faces heightened drought and wildfire risk. The phenomenon also raises the likelihood of extreme heat waves across many regions and threatens agricultural output, especially rice crops in India and other parts of Asia. In India, hydroelectric generation has already fallen by about 21 % year‑on‑year as reservoir levels drop.

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the current “Super El Niño” could set new temperature records in the tropical Pacific and trigger severe flooding, droughts and food‑price volatility globally. The United Nations is coordinating humanitarian preparedness for the most vulnerable nations as the event unfolds.