NOAA forecasts 81% chance of very strong El Niño in late 2026

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center predicts an 81 % probability that a very strong El Niño will develop between October and December 2026, making it one of the most intense events recorded since systematic measurements began in 1950. The agency also estimates a 97 % chance the phenomenon will remain active into early 2027.

In Brazil, the forecast signals a stark regional split: the South is likely to experience above‑average rainfall, raising flood, landslide and storm‑severe‑weather risks, while the North and Northeast are expected to see markedly reduced precipitation, extreme heat and heightened fire danger. These climate shifts threaten staple crops such as soybeans, corn, coffee and sugarcane, could cut livestock productivity, and may press food‑price inflation. Federal authorities have created a task‑force to monitor the event, review rural‑insurance budgets and coordinate preventive measures with agencies including INPE, INMET, Embrapa and the civil‑defence network. Municipalities such as São José have already convened crisis‑management committees to strengthen drainage, update contingency plans and alert residents.

Public interest in the El Niño has surged, with online searches spiking especially in southern Brazilian states. Experts warn that, if the projected intensity materialises, the combined effect of a super El Niño and ongoing global warming could produce unprecedented weather extremes across the continent and beyond.