El Niño threatens global cocoa and coffee production

A strong El Niño event is threatening global agricultural supplies, particularly cocoa, coffee, and vanilla. In West Africa, which produces over half of the world's cocoa, meteorologists warn of rainfall deficits that could persist through early 2027. StoneX Group estimates that cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, could decrease by 11% to 1.8 million tons during the 2026-27 period. Ghana, the second-largest producer, anticipates a harvest drop of approximately 13% to 650,000 tons.

The weather phenomenon is also expected to disrupt coffee crops in major producing nations such as Brazil and Vietnam due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall. These supply concerns have contributed to significant volatility in cocoa futures, with prices rising from a March low of $2,846 per ton to approximately $5,600 per ton. Beyond cocoa and coffee, the drought conditions also threaten rubber and oil palm plantations.