El Niño 2026‑2027 forecast heightens drought risk for Peru and Thailand

Peru’s Multisectoral Commission for the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) warns that the coastal El Niño that began in March 2026 could reach a moderate‑to‑strong magnitude (48 % strong, 46 % moderate) during the 2026‑2027 summer. Temperatures along the coast are expected to stay above normal, with typical winter rainfall but occasional light showers. Fisheries may see changes in anchovy distribution and the presence of warm‑water species, prompting authorities to prepare disaster‑risk measures.

Thailand’s climate ministry projects a 96‑98 % chance that El Niño will develop by July 2026 and persist into early 2027. Models from NOAA, IRI and ECMWF indicate a prolonged dry spell, especially during the June‑August rainy season, threatening crops, water supplies and livelihoods. The government has elevated disaster‑management and climate‑adaptation as priorities, planning water‑resource controls, enhanced emergency systems and a national insurance framework while maintaining its net‑zero target for 2050.