El Niño 2026‑27 threatens global food prices

Scientists at NOAA have confirmed that the upcoming 2026‑27 El Niño is likely to become a “very strong” or “Godzilla” event, raising Pacific sea‑surface temperatures by more than 2 °C above normal. The resulting extreme heat, droughts and floods are expected to cut agricultural yields across major producing regions, from India and China to Brazil, South‑East Asia and parts of Africa.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that global commodity prices could rise by up to 15.8 % by the second half of 2028, with the Eurozone’s food basket potentially increasing by about 1.3 %. The most affected products include rice, wheat, coffee, cocoa, sugar and palm oil, which could see price spikes of 50 % to over 100 % in severe scenarios. Central banks are watching the “climate‑inflation” risk, fearing that higher food costs could reignite broader inflation and delay interest‑rate cuts. The impact on household budgets is expected to unfold gradually as the higher input costs filter through supply chains.