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El Niño expected to reach very strong intensity in Brazil
The National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) reports that the El Niño phenomenon is highly likely to reach 'very strong' intensity during the October-November-December quarter, with a 95% probability. This event may be among the most intense recorded since 1950, driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that exceeded 2 °C in late September.
The anticipated climatic impacts for Brazil include above-average rainfall and potential flooding in the South, while the North and Northeast regions face increased drought and wildfire risks due to low precipitation and high temperatures. Additionally, temperatures are expected to remain above average across much of the country.
Separately, severe weather in São Paulo has caused immediate damage, including a supermarket roof collapse in Araçatuba that resulted in one death and several injuries. High winds reaching up to 112 km/h have been recorded in the region, contributing to over 270 weather-related incidents across the state.
Entities
4intelligence · Amazon · Brazil · CPC/NOAA · Defesa Civil Nacional · El Niño · Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais · NOAA · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Pacific Ocean
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 21 SOURCES] Southern Brazil is expected to experience above-average rainfall and potential flooding. fatopaulista.com.br · gazeta24h.com · informa1.com.br · jornalenoticias.com.br · mauaagora.com.br · +13 more
- [● 21 SOURCES] The phenomenon could be among the most intense recorded since 1950. fatopaulista.com.br · gazeta24h.com · informa1.com.br · jornalenoticias.com.br · mauaagora.com.br · +13 more
- [● 21 SOURCES] There is a 95% probability that El Niño will reach 'very strong' intensity during the October-November-December quarter. fatopaulista.com.br · gazeta24h.com · informa1.com.br · jornalenoticias.com.br · mauaagora.com.br · +13 more
- [● 21 SOURCES] Northern and Northeastern Brazil face increased drought risks and higher fire risks due to low rainfall and high temperatures. fatopaulista.com.br · gazeta24h.com · informa1.com.br · jornalenoticias.com.br · mauaagora.com.br · +13 more
- [● 21 SOURCES] Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded 2 °C at the end of September. fatopaulista.com.br · gazeta24h.com · informa1.com.br · jornalenoticias.com.br · mauaagora.com.br · +13 more
- [● 21 SOURCES] Temperatures are expected to remain above average across much of Brazil. fatopaulista.com.br · gazeta24h.com · informa1.com.br · jornalenoticias.com.br · mauaagora.com.br · +13 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño is estimated to impact household food inflation by 2.4 percentage points.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Inflationary impacts are expected to be higher and more persistent in the North, Northeast, and Minas Gerais.