El Niño develops, scientists warn of possible strong climate impacts

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Niño conditions are now underway in the tropical Pacific, with sea‑surface temperatures exceeding the 0.5 °C threshold used to define an event. Forecasts give a 63 % chance of a very strong (potentially “super”) El Niño during the November‑January period, which could rank among the strongest on record since 1950. Experts note that any strong El Niño will combine with existing global warming, raising the risk of unprecedented temperatures and extreme weather.

In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology expects the El Niño to bring reduced rainfall, higher fire danger and lower alpine snow, but does not anticipate a super event. Elsewhere, the pattern is linked to flooding in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, drought risk in East Africa and parts of the southern United States, and broader impacts on food supplies and economies through 2027.