El Niño forecast threatens Vietnam with drought and heat

A strong El Niño phenomenon is forecasted to impact Vietnam through 2026 and 2027, leading to warmer temperatures and significant agricultural risks. Between October 2026 and March 2027, average temperatures across the country are expected to be 1.0–2.0°C higher than usual, with the Central Highlands and Southern regions potentially seeing increases of up to 2.5°C. While the winter season may have fewer days of severe cold, intense cold snaps could still occur, particularly in January 2027, bringing risks of frost and snow to northern mountainous provinces.

The El Niño event is also expected to trigger widespread drought and saltwater intrusion. In the Mekong Delta, risks are projected from November 2026 to May 2027, while other coastal regions may face these conditions until August 2027. Under a high-risk scenario, significant agricultural areas are threatened, including approximately 85,800 hectares of winter-spring rice and 120,000 hectares of rice-shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta. Additionally, rainfall deficits of 20% to 40% could affect crops in North Central and South Central coastal areas. The phenomenon is also expected to impact domestic water supplies, potentially affecting nearly 200,000 households across the Mekong Delta and North Central regions due to depleted water sources.