El Niño fuels sharp rise in global coffee prices

The International Coffee Organization reported that the El Niño climate pattern is driving a renewed surge in coffee prices worldwide. The composite price indicator (I‑CIP) averaged 248.9 US cents per pound in June, a 2.8% drop from May, but the month saw extreme volatility, with prices falling to a near two‑year low of 231.96 cents before rebounding 17.4% to end the month at 272.39 cents. In some markets, daily spikes reached 350 cents per pound, the highest level recorded this year.

Weather disruptions in Brazil’s key coffee‑growing regions, including rainfall up to 20 times the historical average in Minas Gerais, delayed harvesting and raised quality concerns. Forecasts from meteorological agencies in Japan and the United States indicate a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” later in 2026, heightening supply worries. Export data show a 4.1% year‑on‑year decline in global green‑bean shipments in May, with Arabica exports down 9.3% while Robusta rose 4.8%.

The combination of low inventories, delayed Brazil harvests, and the looming Super El Niño has led analysts to expect continued price pressure for coffee consumers worldwide.