El Niño fuels worldwide food price spikes and forecasts a milder European winter

A strengthening El Niño is driving sharp increases in key agricultural commodities. Since early June, Arabica coffee prices have risen about 30 % to $3.12 per pound, while cocoa futures jumped more than 63 % to a peak of $6,455 per tonne in July. Analysts at Rabobank note that coffee and cocoa markets are becoming increasingly linked despite differing supply‑demand fundamentals, suggesting investors are pricing in a risk premium for the climate event. The European Central Bank estimates that a strong El Niño can lift global food‑raw‑material prices by roughly nine percent, compounding pressures from higher fertilizer costs and energy market disruptions.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that the combined effect of El Niño, reduced fertilizer use, and extreme weather could push an additional 49 million people into acute food‑insecurity by 2027. Early impacts are already visible in Peru, where unusually warm Pacific waters have halted anchoveta fishing, causing fish‑meal prices to more than double. Major grain producers such as Australia (wheat) and India (rice) also face yield risks.

Separately, a concurrent positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a developing Super El Niño are projected to alter winter weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. Models from the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts and U.S. agencies suggest a warmer, wetter winter for much of Europe, with similar temperature anomalies expected in Canada and the northern United States, while the southern U.S. could experience colder, stormier conditions.