El Niño intensification threatens global temperatures and Vietnam water supplies

A powerful El Niño event is projected to reach peak intensity in early 2027, posing significant global and regional risks. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts the phenomenon will develop into a ‘very strong’ event, potentially making 2027 one of the hottest years on record. Research from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates that temperature increases related to this event could result in approximately 451,000 deaths between September 2026 and February 2027.

In Vietnam, authorities warn of a high risk of water shortages during the 2027 dry season. Current water patterns mirror the severe droughts seen in 2015-2016 and 2019-2020. Under a high-risk scenario, rainfall could decrease by 10-20%, leading to reduced river flows and early saltwater intrusion. In a very high-risk scenario, rainfall could drop by 20-40%, significantly threatening the water storage capacity of reservoirs in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands, and Southern regions.

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are currently 3.05°C above normal, the largest deviation recorded. This warming is expected to drive global shifts in temperature and precipitation, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, and floods.