El Niño intensity reaches 1,000-year high due to warming

Researchers from the University of Michigan have discovered that El Niño episodes over the last four decades have been the strongest in at least 1,000 years. By analyzing coral cores from the Galapagos Islands, scientists reconstructed temperature histories using strontium-to-calcium ratios and oxygen isotopes. The study, published in Science, indicates that recent El Niño events are nearly 40 percent stronger than those in the pre-industrial era.

Climate models suggest this increase in intensity is linked to global warming, which heightens the risk of severe droughts, floods, and wildfires. This strengthening trend correlates with rising global temperatures.

In terms of seasonal impact, forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that these Pacific anomalies may lead to a milder winter in Europe. For the period between December and February, temperatures in Poland and much of the continent are projected to be 1-2 degrees Celsius warmer than average. Additionally, increased precipitation, including rain and snow, is expected across much of Europe, particularly in the region spanning from Spain to the Alps and near the Black Sea, which may help mitigate recent droughts.