El Niño intensity triggers wildfires and water crises in Indonesia

An exceptionally strong El Niño event is expected to reach peak intensity this winter, with tropical Pacific water temperatures projected to rise 3.38 degrees Celsius above average. This record-breaking warming is forecasted to cause unprecedented global weather impacts, with models suggesting a nearly 100% chance that the high-intensity event will persist through the spring of 2027.

In Indonesia, the El Niño cycle combined with severe drought has triggered widespread peatland wildfires and a critical water crisis across Borneo and Sumatra. Decades of land conversion, including the draining of approximately 60% of peatlands for palm oil and pulp and paper concessions, have lowered water tables and left ecosystems vulnerable. These dry conditions have turned peatlands into tinderboxes, where fires burn both above and below the surface, making them extremely difficult to extinguish. Residents in affected areas are currently facing heavy toxic haze and acute shortages of drinking water.