El Niño officially begins, boosting global heat and agricultural risks

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that the El Niño climate pattern has officially started. Sea‑surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are above average, and forecasts give a 63 % chance of a very strong El Niño between November and January, potentially ranking among the strongest events recorded since 1950 and possibly evolving into a “super” El Niño.

Scientists warn that the phenomenon will raise global temperatures, shift precipitation regimes and increase the likelihood of heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildfires. The changes are expected to affect health and food security, with some regions seeing modest benefits for certain crops while many agricultural areas face heightened risk. The UN secretary‑general called the event an urgent climate warning, highlighting its contribution to already extreme 2024 heat records.