El Niño officially begins, raising risk of extreme weather through 2027

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that conditions for a new El Niño cycle have developed in the tropical Pacific, marking the official start of the phenomenon. Scientists estimate a roughly 63 % chance that this cycle could become a “Super El Niño,” one of the strongest events recorded since 1950, and it may persist until early 2027.

Experts warn that the combination of El Niño and ongoing global warming could intensify extreme weather worldwide, including record heat, severe droughts, heavy rainfall, flooding, and large‑scale wildfires. Regions expected to feel heightened impacts include the Amazon basin in South America, as well as Mexico and the southern United States, where increased precipitation and storm activity are forecast. The World Meteorological Organization’s secretary‑general highlighted the potential for some of the hottest years on record and greater risk of heat‑related oceanic events.

The development of El Niño adds uncertainty to climate forecasts and underscores the need for preparedness across affected nations.