El Niño officially declared, expected to trigger worldwide climate disruptions

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed that a new El Niño event has begun, with sea‑surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific exceeding the threshold for the phenomenon. Climate models give the 2023‑24 edition a 63 % chance of becoming a “Super El Niño”, potentially surpassing previous records and intensifying global weather extremes.

Experts warn that a strong El Niño can raise the likelihood of wetter conditions in the southwestern United States, suppress the Atlantic hurricane season, and drive severe drought in Indonesia and the Sahel region of Africa. The added ocean heat also threatens coral reefs and contributes to overall planetary warming.

In Europe, the effect is indirect. The Italian analysis notes that El Niño may indirectly influence the Mediterranean climate by altering Rossby wave patterns and interacting with the Atlantic‑European jet stream. Possible outcomes for Italy include milder autumn temperatures, increased variability in rainfall, more frequent Atlantic storms affecting north‑west and coastal regions, and drier conditions in the south and Sicily, depending on how regional atmospheric circulations respond.