started · updated
Super El Niño threatens global weather and food security
Climate experts and agencies, including NOAA, warn of a potentially historic Super El Niño event expected to peak between late 2026 and early 2027. There is a 70% probability that this will be the strongest event recorded since 1950, with a 90% chance of it being very strong during the Northern Hemisphere's autumn and winter.
The phenomenon is expected to cause significant global disruptions, including extreme heat, droughts, and flooding. In Mexico, experts anticipate severe water scarcity and heatwaves exceeding 45 degrees Celsius, while parts of the Pacific may face intense cyclone activity. In South America, the Amazon faces heightened risks of primary forest loss due to wildfires, as historical data shows that strong El Niño events are followed by severe fire seasons. In Argentina, heavy rainfall and flooding are anticipated in the Litoral and Northeast regions.
Economic and social impacts are expected to be widespread. The event may threaten food security, increase global food prices, and disrupt agricultural production for crops like soy, corn, and wheat. Additionally, the warming of the Pacific poses threats to marine ecosystems, such as the Galapagos penguins, due to reduced food availability.
Entities
Amazon · Amazon Conservation · Amazon Conservation Association · Amazon rainforest · Argentina · Brazil · Climate Prediction Center · Galápagos Islands · Mexico · NOAA · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Pacific Ocean
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] The median sea surface temperature anomaly for October–December 2026 is forecasted at +2.66°C. recentlyheard.com · www.turkgun.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2015 El Niño resulted in 4.35 million acres of primary forest loss in 2016. www.amazonconservation.org
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Stronger El Niño events are consistently followed by more severe fire seasons and greater primary forest loss in the following year. www.amazonconservation.org
- [DISPUTED] The probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026 is 95%. recentlyheard.com · mancheterio.com.br · madhyamamonline.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2023 El Niño led to the worst fire season on record in 2024, with 6.89 million acres of forest lost. www.amazonconservation.org
- [● 6 SOURCES] There is a 97% probability that El Niño will persist until the beginning of spring 2027. www.umbriajournal.com · www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · madhyamamonline.com · presseagence.fr · electricityinfo.org · +1 more
- [● 6 SOURCES] Subsurface ocean temperature anomalies have reached up to +10°C in certain areas. recentlyheard.com · www.notizie.it · metrotoday.it · mancheterio.com.br
- [DISPUTED] There is a 70% probability that El Niño will be the strongest event on record since 1950. www.benguturk.com · www.bursahakimiyet.com.tr · www.ortadogugazetesi.com · www.notizie.it · www.nossagente.net · +2 more
- [● 2 SOURCES] There is a 96% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through the boreal winter of December to February. presseagence.fr · www.radiocafayate.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The El Niño phenomenon is expected to cause food insecurity in 45 vulnerable countries in 2027. lajornadasanluis.com.mx
- [○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño conditions are expected to persist until the beginning of spring 2027. ecosderosarito.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] El Niño is expected to intensify starting in December and persist until the beginning of spring 2027. ecosderosarito.com · www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · argentarnoticias.com.ar