El Niño phenomenon prompts winter weather uncertainty

A powerful El Niño phase in the tropical Pacific, characterized by water temperatures more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above average, is prompting discussions regarding potential extreme winter weather. While the phenomenon causes droughts in Australia and flooding in South America, its impact on Europe is indirect and depends heavily on the North Atlantic development, the jet stream, and the Arctic polar vortex.

Meteorologists are currently considering three primary scenarios for the upcoming winter:

1. Mild and rainy conditions, potentially accompanied by storms, high winds, and an increased risk of flooding. 2. A pattern similar to recent years, featuring variable and mild weather with rare snow in lower elevations. 3. A scenario where El Niño affects the polar vortex, causing it to become unstable and allowing cold polar air to penetrate southward, potentially in the later part of the winter.

Currently, a continuously cold and snowy winter is considered the least likely of the three possibilities.