El Niño phenomenon threatens over 450,000 lives due to extreme heat

El Niño extreme heat climate change mortality projections ocean warming

A powerful El Niño phenomenon is intensifying in the Pacific Ocean, with researchers from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago warning of severe global consequences. Projections suggest that between June 2026 and February 2027, the event could cause more than 450,000 additional deaths globally due to extreme heat. This includes an estimated 44 percent increase in the number of extreme heat days.

The impact is expected to be most severe in the Global South. The Sahel region in Africa, including Nigeria and Sudan, could see up to 66,800 additional deaths. Other highly vulnerable areas include South and Southeast Asia, with significant mortality projected in Indonesia, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. In Latin America, Brazil is expected to be among the hardest hit.

Oceanic data shows significant warming, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific reaching 3 to 5 degrees Celsius near the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. In Argentina, models suggest the event could be one of the strongest on record, bringing heavy rain and wind. Meanwhile, in Paraguay, authorities are preparing for increased rainfall and temperature rises, advising farmers to adopt specific mitigation strategies to protect crops.

Entities

Climate Impact Lab · Michael Greenstone · Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock · Pacific Ocean · Sahel · University of Chicago

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 5 SOURCES] The Sahel region in Africa could see approximately 66,000 to 66,800 additional deaths. nczas.info · www.noticias24hrs.com.ve · www.blitzquotidiano.it · www.novinky.cz · www.polsatnews.pl
[○ 1 SOURCE] Sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific near Ecuador and Peru have reached 3 to 5 degrees Celsius. www.meteored.cl
[● 2 SOURCES] Nigeria is projected to experience over 31,000 additional heat-related deaths. nczas.info · www.novinky.cz
[○ 1 SOURCE] Paraguay expects above-average rainfall and rising temperatures due to El Niño between October and December. wochenblatt.cc
[● 3 SOURCES] Extreme heat days are expected to increase by 44 percent compared to typical years. nczas.info · www.blitzquotidiano.it · www.polsatnews.pl
[○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 69 percent probability that El Niño will reach a 'very strong' intensity between October and December 2026. elmercurio.com.ec
[○ 1 SOURCE] 22 forecast models agree that the 2026 El Niño event will strengthen further. diariosanrafael.com.ar
[● 5 SOURCES] The El Niño phenomenon could lead to over 450,000 additional deaths due to extreme heat between June 2026 and February 2027. nczas.info · www.noticias24hrs.com.ve · www.blitzquotidiano.it · www.novinky.cz · www.polsatnews.pl