El Niño poised for record intensity as NOAA warns of extreme global weather

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday that the El Niño phenomenon has begun and could reach unprecedented strength. Scientists assign a 63 % chance of a very strong episode between November and January, potentially raising Pacific Ocean temperatures by about 2 °C. The agency warned that this “super‑Niño” may produce intense heat waves, severe droughts and flooding worldwide.

Experts linked the projected intensity to climate change, noting that higher fossil‑fuel‑driven temperatures could amplify the event. Regions likely to feel the impacts include East Africa, where communities already strained by droughts could face harsher dryness and torrential rains; the Central American “Dry Corridor” (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua), where a lack of rain may trigger food shortages prompting governments to stock emergency rations; South America, which may see both drought and heavy precipitation; India and Australia, where heat waves and heightened fire risk are expected; and other parts of the Indo‑Pacific region.

The outlook underscores the broader risk that climate‑driven El Niño events pose to global agriculture, water supplies and food prices, prompting authorities in multiple countries to raise disaster alerts.