El Niño predicted to become strongest event in decades by 2026‑27

Major climate agencies have raised alerts as the Pacific Ocean warms rapidly. The World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. NOAA now assign an 81‑97 % chance that El Niño will reach “very strong” or record‑breaking intensity between October 2026 and early 2027. Sea‑surface temperatures in the Niño‑3.4 region are already 1.2‑2.1 °C above normal, with subsurface anomalies exceeding 6 °C, suggesting ample heat to fuel a powerful event.

Model projections from the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts, Japan’s JMA and others forecast anomalies of 3‑4 °C, potentially surpassing the 1997‑98 super El Niño. Scientists warn the episode could amplify global warming, driving extreme drought and wild‑fire risk in the western Pacific, while increasing heavy rain, flooding and storm surges along South‑American coasts and parts of the United States. The UN has mobilised a coordinated response for vulnerable nations, and the UN secretary‑general called the approaching El Niño a “urgent climate threat.”

Experts stress the need for stronger adaptation and water‑resource management strategies worldwide as the 2026 year is set to become the warmest on record.