El Niño raises risk of global food price surge as wars disrupt supplies

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 63% chance that this year’s El Niño will be very strong. JP Morgan warned that, combined with oil prices at $100 a barrel, the phenomenon could lift food prices by as much as 1.5%. Ongoing conflicts – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war with Iran – have already pushed food costs higher by disrupting grain exports from Ukraine and raising global oil and fertilizer prices.

FAO chief economist Maximo Torero said the cumulative effect could create a “very complex situation,” noting that El Niño is expected to reduce Indian monsoon rains and cut rice yields by 20‑50% in South Asia, the Sahel, southern Africa, Southeast Asia and Central America’s dry corridor. The World Bank echoed concerns that rice production in affected regions could fall sharply. Despite these pressures, food prices remain about 20% below the 2022 peak after a record grain harvest last year.