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6 clusters · 12 sources · 65 days · First seen · Last updated

El Niño impact on global food and rice markets

Overview

The emergence of a strong El Niño phenomenon continues to drive global food security concerns and price volatility. Asian rice export prices have reached one-year highs due to El Niño-induced heatwaves, shifting supply dynamics, and weather-related milling constraints.

In Thailand, FOB prices for 5% broken white rice reached $475 per ton on September 3, driven by water scarcity and increased production costs. In Vietnam, producers in the Mekong Delta remain concerned that low water levels will reduce silt deposits and impact future yields. India has also seen export prices rise as traders warn of the “weakest monsoon in 20 years.”

New data from Indonesia highlights the intensifying impact of the phenomenon. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), drought conditions have significantly reduced rice planting areas. In August 2026, the proportion of rice standing crops was only 28.07%, down from 29.79% during the 2023 El Niño period. Consequently, rice production in August 2026 fell to 3.15 million tons, a 2.90% decrease from the previous year.

Economists expect the phenomenon to persist into early next year, potentially delaying planting seasons and impacting harvest cycles. Beyond agriculture, low water levels in rivers, particularly in Kalimantan, may hinder the transportation of coal and crude palm oil (CPO), threatening Indonesia’s trade balance. Food-related inflation remains a critical pressure point, with annual inflation in Indonesia forecasted between 3% and 3.5% by the end of 2026.

Entities

Thailand · Vietnam · India · Máximo Torero · OCBC Group

Timeline

  1. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    El Nino threatens Indonesia's rice production and commodity exports

    El Nino is driving down rice production and threatening Indonesia's commodity exports and trade balance, with experts warning of continued inflationary pressure through early 2027.

  2. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    El Nino threatens food inflation across ASEAN nations

    El Nino is driving food inflation risks across ASEAN, particularly affecting rice, wheat, and corn prices in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand.

  3. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Thai white rice prices reach two-month high

    Thai 5% broken white rice prices have hit a two-month high at $475 per ton, driven by water scarcity, milling challenges, and demand from the Philippines and Malaysia.

  4. [BUSINESS] 4 sources
    Asian rice prices hit one-year high amid weather concerns

    Asian rice prices have hit one-year highs due to El Nino and monsoon concerns, while Black Sea tensions have pushed wheat prices to a three-year peak.

  5. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Asian rice export prices rise amid El Nino supply concerns

    Asian rice export prices are climbing as El Nino heatwaves spark fears of tightened global food supplies, affecting major exporters like Vietnam, India, and Thailand.

  6. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    El Niño raises risk of global food price surge as wars disrupt supplies

    A strong El Niño, with a 63% chance, could boost food prices up to 1.5% amid Ukraine and Iran wars that already strain grain exports and fertilizer costs, FAO warns of major rice yield cuts in Asia and Africa.

Sources

antaranews.com · baohatinh.vn · baotintuc.vn · bisnis.liputan6.com · cafef.vn · clovermedia.jp · cnbcindonesia.com · doanhnghiephoinhap.vn · thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn · thuonggiaonline.vn · vietnamplus.vn · vtv.vn

This summary has been updated 4 times: see revision history