El Niño returns, models warn of abnormal weather impacts

A large warm‑water bubble has emerged in the central Pacific, signalling the return of El Niño. Climate models from major weather services project sea‑surface temperatures 3 °C to 4 °C above the 1870 baseline—levels not recorded in over a century.

The anomaly is expected to act as a weather amplifier. European heatwaves this summer could become more intense, and the already dry Mediterranean region faces heightened wildfire risk. In the coming winter of 2026/27, a strong El Niño may weaken the Arctic polar vortex, allowing cold Arctic air to move southward and potentially altering winter conditions across northern Europe.

The analysis, authored by meteorologist Dominik Jung, emphasizes that while El Niño is not the direct cause of current heatwaves, its presence intensifies them and may shape future seasonal patterns.