El Niño risk heightens for Malawi and global food markets

Experts warn that a possible El Niño event could undermine Malawi’s fragile economic recovery. Centre for Social Concern officer Agnes Nyirongo said, “If agricultural production falls because of El Niño, Malawi will face higher food prices, reduced export earnings, deeper foreign exchange shortages and slower economic growth.” The government’s budget outlook remains cautiously positive, but officials stress the need for irrigation, climate‑smart agriculture and diversification to avoid a reversal of recent macro‑economic gains.

At the same time, economists caution that a “super” El Niño could push global food commodity prices up by about 15.8%, with price spikes of 10‑50% for staples such as rice, wheat, sugar, coffee, cocoa and palm oil. Goldman Sachs projects the full impact may not be felt until the second half of 2028, potentially reducing worldwide agricultural output by 14.3% and costing roughly US$342 billion. The combined climate shock threatens inflation and food security both in Malawi and across major producing regions.