El Niño set to become one of the strongest events in decades

Weather agencies in New Zealand and Australia say an El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific is likely to become unusually strong, potentially surpassing the intensity of the 2015‑16 event. New Zealand’s Earth Sciences service notes rapid warming of central‑Pacific sea‑surface temperatures, forecasting a “super” El Niño that could exceed a 2 °C anomaly, with some models suggesting more than 3 °C. While the precise impacts on New Zealand remain uncertain, regions such as Canterbury are warned of heightened drought risk.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warns the phenomenon could peak at levels not seen since the 1950s, bringing excessive rainfall to the Americas and hot, dry conditions across much of Asia, where crop planting is already strained. The likely intensification threatens agricultural output in key exporting nations, including Australia’s wheat, sugar and beef sectors. Scientists stress that climate change may amplify the event’s effects.

Both agencies expect to formalise El Niño declarations in the coming weeks as the oceanic and atmospheric indicators continue to align.