El Niño threatens copper output in Chile, Peru, Zambia and DRC

A super‑strong El Niño event, projected by the China Meteorological Administration and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center to be the strongest in 150 years, is expected to persist into early 2027. In South America, the phenomenon is bringing intense rainfall to Chile and Peru, causing floods, mudslides, temporary closure of key export ports such as Huasco and Coquimbo, and at least ten deaths. Mining companies including Codelco, Anglo American and Antofagasta have activated emergency plans and revised 2026 copper output forecasts downward.

In Africa, the same El Niño is driving severe drought in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cutting hydro‑electric generation that powers many copper mines. Companies such as Zijin Mining’s Kamoa‑Kakula and Luoyang Molybdenum’s TFM/KFM projects are confronting power shortages, resorting to diesel backup and accelerating green‑energy projects. The combined disruptions tighten global copper supply, pushing processing fees into negative territory and prompting analysts to forecast copper prices above US$12,000 per tonne in 2026.