El Niño threatens food and energy security in Sub-Saharan Africa

The El Niño phenomenon is expected to intensify and persist until February 2027, posing significant threats to food and electricity supplies across Sub-Saharan Africa. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that this intense episode could hinder economic growth and increase inflation due to rising import costs and budgetary pressures.

In Southern Africa, including Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, below-normal rainfall is predicted between October 2026 and March 2027. This may lead to crop failures and reduced hydroelectric production as reservoir levels drop. For example, during the 2023-2024 drought, Zambia saw maize harvests decrease by approximately half and experienced prolonged power outages.

Madagascar is also preparing for severe climate risks. The government estimates that $220 million will be needed to address potential droughts, extreme heat, and flooding. Meteorological forecasts for Madagascar suggest a period of rainfall deficits and high temperatures from October 2026 to January 2027, followed by a risk of heavy precipitation, flash floods, and landslides between February and April 2027.