El Niño threatens Vietnam aquaculture with drought and salinity

A strong El Niño event is forecasted to impact the 2026–2027 dry season, posing significant risks to aquaculture and water security. Reports indicate a 98% probability of very strong El Niño intensity between October and December 2026, with the phenomenon likely persisting through the first half of 2027.

In Vietnam, the Mekong Delta, South Central Highlands, and Southeast regions face heightened risks of drought and saltwater intrusion from November 2026 to May 2027. Water inflows to the Mekong Delta could drop by 15–20% compared to historical averages. Saltwater intrusion levels may reach depths similar to the 2015–2016 season, with salinity boundaries potentially penetrating 50–70 km deep into Mekong river mouths and up to 130 km into the Vam Co river mouths.

To mitigate these risks, the aquaculture industry is advised to proactively adjust seasonal cycles, manage farming densities, increase environmental monitoring, and adopt water-saving technologies.