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Global fuel markets face volatility from geopolitical conflicts and refinery capacity shortages
Global fuel and energy markets are facing significant volatility driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply constraints. In the Middle East, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have severely impacted production and exports, contributing to a 70 percent rise in European diesel prices since the conflict began. Additionally, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have reduced Russian oil refining capacity by nearly 30 percent.
Refinery capacity is also under pressure; the International Energy Agency reported that global refinery processing was 5.1 million barrels per day lower in the second quarter compared to the previous year. This has led to record refining margins in Europe, Asia, and the US.
Regional price shifts are evident worldwide. In Portugal, the government has increased temporary tax discounts on diesel and gasoline to mitigate rising costs, even as diesel prices are expected to rise by 3.5 cents per liter. In Honduras, diesel prices are set to increase by over 3 lempiras per gallon. In the Dominican Republic, regular gasoline and diesel prices have risen by RD$3 per gallon. Meanwhile, in Chile, the company Copec delayed a planned gasoline price hike by 24 hours to provide temporary relief to consumers.
Entities
Chile · Copec · ENAP · Empresa Nacional del Petróleo · European Union · Eurostat · Honduras · International Energy Agency · Iran · Mecanismo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles · Mexico · Middle East
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 5 SOURCES] Klaus Müller stated that sufficient gas is available and gas traders must fulfill their responsibilities. www.allgaeuer-zeitung.de · www.fehmarn24.de · www.zeit.de
- [○ 1 SOURCE] To reach a 90% storage target by November, LNG imports must increase by approximately 13% compared to last year. rayhaber.com
- [DISPUTED] German gas storage levels were 50.06% as of August 19, 2026.
- [DISPUTED] EU storage is expected to reach approximately 75% by November 1.
- [DISPUTED] EU gas storage levels reached 60.8% as of August 17, 2026. rayhaber.com · www.diepresse.com · mvlehti.net
- [● 7 SOURCES] The Bundesnetzagentur maintains that gas supply and security in Germany remain stable. www.allgaeuer-zeitung.de · www.fehmarn24.de · www.zeit.de · www.t-online.de
- [● 2 SOURCES] The EU storage level of 60.8% is the lowest mid-August level in five years. rayhaber.com
- [DISPUTED] EU storage is expected to reach approximately 77% by November 1. www.hna.de
- [● 2 SOURCES] Electricity spot prices are expected to rise in autumn and winter above recent average levels. www.ess.fi · www.ilkkapohjalainen.fi
- [● 2 SOURCES] The EU lowered the required gas storage level for member states from 90% to 80%. mvlehti.net · rayhaber.com
- [DISPUTED] European gas prices closed at €64.30 per MWh on August 18, 2026. www.allgaeuer-zeitung.de · www.fehmarn24.de · www.zeit.de
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The gas price on August 18 represents a 134% increase from its January 2026 low of €0.268 per m³.