Euribor hits near‑3% level, pushing variable mortgage payments higher in Spain and Portugal

Euribor variable mortgages Spain Portugal ECB rate outlook

The Eurozone’s benchmark Euribor rose to 2.855 % for the 12‑month tenor in July, its highest level since September 2024 and close to the 3 % barrier. The increase of 0.776 percentage points over the previous year and 0.057 points from June reflects heightened inflation expectations after oil‑price spikes linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The European Central Bank kept its key rates at 2.25 % on 23 July but signalled a possible hike in September.

In Spain, the rise means hundreds of thousands of variable‑rate mortgages will see annual payments rise by up to €1,500. A €150,000 loan could cost an extra €64‑66 per month. Similar upward pressure is seen in Portugal, where three‑month and six‑month Euribor rates reached new highs of 2.498 % and 2.724 % respectively. Market analysts such as Ignacio Cantos called July “complicado”, while Pedro Ruiz warned that the US‑Iran conflict is creating structural effects on prices.

The higher Euribor levels are expected to persist as the ECB’s policy outlook remains hawkish, affecting mortgage borrowers and banking sector funding costs across the Eurozone.

Entities: Banco de España · Christine Lagarde · Euribor · Euribor · European Central Bank · Ignacio Cantos · Pedro Ruiz · Portugal · Spain

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 2 SOURCES] The rate increased 0.776 percentage points compared with July 2023. (Banco de España data)
[● 2 SOURCES] Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz in mid‑July lifted oil prices, inflation and expectations of ECB rate hikes, pushing Euribor near 3%. (EFE analysis)
[● 2 SOURCES] Hundreds of thousands of variable‑rate mortgages in Spain will see annual cost increases up to €1,500. (EFE interview with Ignacio Cantos)
[● 2 SOURCES] The ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged at 2.25% on 23 July 2024. (ECB policy decision)
[● 2 SOURCES] The July rate is the highest since September 2024. (Banco de España data)
[● 2 SOURCES] The rate rose 0.057 points from June 2024. (Banco de España data)
[○ 1 SOURCE] In August, Euribor fell to 2.461% (3‑month), 2.705% (6‑month) and 2.939% (12‑month) in Portugal. (Banco de Portugal data)
[● 2 SOURCES] The 12‑month Euribor closed July at 2.855%. (Banco de España data)