European Commission projects Serbia's 2024 GDP growth at 2.8% ahead of EXPO27

The European Commission’s spring economic forecasts predict Serbia’s gross domestic product will grow by 2.8 % in 2024 and accelerate to 3.9 % in 2025. The outlook attributes the rebound to heightened domestic demand driven by large public‑investment programmes linked to the specialised EXPO27 exhibition in Belgrade, as well as rising wages and pensions.

The Commission also expects Serbia’s fiscal deficit to temporarily increase to 3.2 % of GDP in 2026 after the government cut fuel excise duties in response to the Middle‑East conflict, and public debt to edge up to about 45 % of GDP the following year. Net foreign direct investment is projected to be roughly half the 2024 level, while the growth rate slowed to 2 % in 2025 after a 3.9 % expansion in 2024. The report flags political instability, reduced competitiveness from fast wage growth, and the plunge in foreign investment as risks.

For the wider Western Balkans, the Commission forecasts Albania at 3.3 %, North Macedonia at 3.2 %, Montenegro matching Serbia at 2.8 %, and Bosnia‑Herzegovina at 1.8 % growth in 2024.