Germany's oil supply stays stable despite Iran war, kerosene at risk

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) says that, despite the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Israel conflict, the supply of crude oil, gasoline and diesel to Germany and the wider European market remains secure. DIW economist Franziska Holz notes that diversified import sources reduce the chance of a large‑scale shortage, although the supply of kerosene is more uncertain.

Brent crude has hovered around $100 per barrel, reflecting a geopolitical risk premium rather than an actual supply disruption. Europe’s broader energy strategy – expanded strategic reserves and a wider mix of suppliers such as Norway, the United States and Saudi Arabia – further shields consumers from immediate shortages. The surge in fuel prices, however, continues to impact motorists, with taxes and other costs also contributing to higher pump prices.

Overall, the market expects no imminent price decline, and officials urge fuel‑saving measures while monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle‑East tension.