Middle East conflict's impact on energy markets

In mid‑July, Israel agreed to let U.S. air‑refuel tankers continue landing at Ben Gurion Airport, a move meant to support ongoing U.S. strikes while keeping civilian flights flowing. At the same time, President Trump’s announcement of a 20 % fee on all shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushed European natural‑gas prices to a three‑month high and forced Europe to accelerate gas‑storage replenishment ahead of winter.

A week later, the German Institute for Economic Research reported that despite the intensifying Iran‑Israel conflict and attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Europe’s supply of crude oil, gasoline and diesel remained secure thanks to diversified sources and healthy stock levels. However, kerosene supplies were identified as vulnerable because the region supplies much of the aviation fuel market. Global oil markets stayed tight, Brent crude climbed to about $100 a barrel—a 40 % rise since early July—driven by the broader Gulf confrontations and U.S. retaliatory strikes.

By late July 2026, the same institute reaffirmed that Germany and the wider European market continued to receive stable deliveries of crude, gasoline and diesel despite heightened tensions from the Iran‑Israel war. A mix of suppliers—including Norway, the United States and Saudi Arabia—still shields consumers, while kerosene remains at risk because of its reliance on the conflict‑affected region. Brent crude hovered near $100 per barrel, reflecting a persistent geopolitical risk premium rather than an immediate supply shock. European officials maintain fuel‑saving appeals and keep a close watch on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, expecting no imminent price decline.

Overall, the conflict has spurred sharp price increases and specific fuel‑type concerns while leaving overall European oil availability largely intact.